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Senior Business Analyst: Commercial Loss Forecasting

Senior Business Analyst: Commercial Loss Forecasting

Situated within Commercial Credit Risk and Analytics, the Commercial Loss Forecasting team is responsible for projecting loan losses (net charge-offs) on Capital One’s ~$140 billion portfolio of Commercial loans.  The team synthesizes quantitative and qualitative information on portfolio credit quality through the use of statistical models and the analysis of portfolio, market, and economic trends. The ultimate product is a forecast that distills this broad set of information into holistic measures of the most important credit risks for the Commercial Bank. The team's key deliverables include setting the quarterly Allowance for Credit Loss, running annual regulatory stress testing exercises (CCAR), and setting the internal budget for net charge-offs.
 

The Senior Business Analyst will be responsible for the execution, analysis and presentation of the Commercial credit loss forecast. The analyst will assume ownership of forecast sub-processes, contribute to team discussions on credit risks, and design/implement forecast improvements. Further, the analyst will be expected to build relationships across the Commercial Bank, Risk, and Finance organizations in order to build buy-in for key loss forecasting decisions.

General Business Analyst Responsibilities at Capital One include but not limited to:

  • Analysis: Identify business challenges and opportunities for improvement and solve for them using analysis to make strategic or tactical recommendations

  • Credit Risk: Support step-change improvements in credit performance by connecting drivers of future consumer credit trends to historical behavior, creating risk models, and testing hypotheses using rigorous monitoring and analysis

  • Execution: Involve problem frame-works, develop hypotheses, test and analysis, solution development, scope operational feasibility, lead implementation efforts and develop a monitoring plan

  • Partnership: Work closely with colleagues across Capital One including: IT, Operations, Finance and others to drive improvement in quality, volume, service, and profitability

  • Strategic & analytic orientation: A proven track record of decision making and problem solving based on analytics. Conceptual thinking skills must be complemented by a strong quantitative orientation, given that a large part of the business is based on rigorous analytic marketing & credit risk management

  • Strong business judgment, leadership and integrity: He/she should be a tenacious decision maker, able to bring a healthy, aggressive, yet responsible approach to business

  • Strong communication skills: Impeccable written and oral communication credentials, coupled with strategic influencing skills and the ability to drive agreement through intellect, interpersonal and negotiation skills

  • Clear results orientation: display an intense focus on achieving both short and long term goals. He/she should be able to drive and execute an agenda in an uncertain and fluid environment

  • Successful track record of thriving in a fast paced, entrepreneurial and dynamic environment. Previous consulting experience is a plus

Basic Qualifications:

  • Bachelor’s Degree in any quantitative field (Business, Math, Economics, Finance, Statistics, Science, Engineering)

  • At least 1 year of experience in analysis

Preferred Qualifications:

  • Master’s Degree in Business or quantitative field such as Finance, Economics, Physical Sciences, Math, Statistics, Engineering

  • 1+ years of experience in Statistical model building

  • 1+ years of experience in SQL querying

  • 2+ years of experience in business analysis

  • 1+ years of experience in consulting

Capital One will consider sponsoring a new qualified applicant for employment authorization for this position. 

The minimum and maximum full-time annual salaries for this role are listed below, by location. Please note that this salary information is solely for candidates hired to perform work within one of these locations, and refers to the amount Capital One is willing to pay at the time of this posting. Salaries for part-time roles will be prorated based upon the agreed upon number of hours to be regularly worked.

McLean, VA: $109,000 - $124,400 for Sr. Business Analyst


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 

Candidates hired to work in other locations will be subject to the pay range associated with that location, and the actual annualized salary amount offered to any candidate at the time of hire will be reflected solely in the candidate’s offer letter.

This role is also eligible to earn performance based incentive compensation, which may include cash bonus(es) and/or long term incentives (LTI). Incentives could be discretionary or non discretionary depending on the plan.

Capital One offers a comprehensive, competitive, and inclusive set of health, financial and other benefits that support your total well-being. Learn more at the Capital One Careers website. Eligibility varies based on full or part-time status, exempt or non-exempt status, and management level.

This role is expected to accept applications for a minimum of 5 business days.

No agencies please. Capital One is an equal opportunity employer committed to diversity and inclusion in the workplace. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to sex (including pregnancy, childbirth or related medical conditions), race, color, age, national origin, religion, disability, genetic information, marital status, sexual orientation, gender identity, gender reassignment, citizenship, immigration status, protected veteran status, or any other basis prohibited under applicable federal, state or local law. Capital One promotes a drug-free workplace. Capital One will consider for employment qualified applicants with a criminal history in a manner consistent with the requirements of applicable laws regarding criminal background inquiries, including, to the extent applicable, Article 23-A of the New York Correction Law; San Francisco, California Police Code Article 49, Sections 4901-4920; New York City’s Fair Chance Act; Philadelphia’s Fair Criminal Records Screening Act; and other applicable federal, state, and local laws and regulations regarding criminal background inquiries.

If you have visited our website in search of information on employment opportunities or to apply for a position, and you require an accommodation, please contact Capital One Recruiting at 1-800-304-9102 or via email at RecruitingAccommodation@capitalone.com. All information you provide will be kept confidential and will be used only to the extent required to provide needed reasonable accommodations.

For technical support or questions about Capital One's recruiting process, please send an email to Careers@capitalone.com

Capital One does not provide, endorse nor guarantee and is not liable for third-party products, services, educational tools or other information available through this site.

Capital One Financial is made up of several different entities. Please note that any position posted in Canada is for Capital One Canada, any position posted in the United Kingdom is for Capital One Europe and any position posted in the Philippines is for Capital One Philippines Service Corp. (COPSSC).

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$109000K
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What You Should Know About Senior Business Analyst: Commercial Loss Forecasting, Capital One

If you're a numbers whiz and enjoy making sense of data to forecast future outcomes, then the position of Senior Business Analyst: Commercial Loss Forecasting at Capital One in McLean, Virginia, could be the perfect fit for you! In this role, you’ll dive deep into Capital One’s massive $140 billion portfolio of Commercial loans, teasing out insights and trends that are essential for projecting loan losses. As part of the Commercial Loss Forecasting team, your main responsibility will be crafting accurate forecasts around net charge-offs, which play a crucial role in the company’s financial health. You’ll wield powerful statistical models to synthesize qualitative and quantitative information, transforming complex data into actionable insights. Your role won’t just end at analysis; you’ll actively engage with colleagues across the Commercial Bank, Risk, and Finance to communicate findings and drive strategic decisions. You’ll contribute to high-stakes deliverables such as the Allowance for Credit Loss and regulatory stress tests. With a blend of analytical skills and team collaboration, you’ll help identify credit risk drivers and shape improvements in credit performance. This is not just about crunching numbers – it’s about making a real impact in a fast-paced environment. So, if you’re ready to take on the challenge and make a difference with your analysis expertise, Capital One is eager to hear from you!

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) for Senior Business Analyst: Commercial Loss Forecasting Role at Capital One
What are the main responsibilities of the Senior Business Analyst: Commercial Loss Forecasting at Capital One?

As a Senior Business Analyst: Commercial Loss Forecasting at Capital One, your primary responsibilities include executing and analyzing the commercial credit loss forecast. You will synthesize quantitative and qualitative data to project loan losses within a $140 billion portfolio. Additionally, you will present your findings, contribute to discussions on credit risks, and design improvements for forecasting processes. Your role also involves collaborating closely with other teams to align on key business decisions.

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What qualifications are required for the Senior Business Analyst: Commercial Loss Forecasting position at Capital One?

For the Senior Business Analyst: Commercial Loss Forecasting role at Capital One, a Bachelor’s Degree in a quantitative field is essential, along with at least one year of analysis experience. Preferred qualifications include a Master's Degree in Business or similar fields, experience in statistical model building, SQL querying, and business analysis, and a consulting background. These qualifications equip you to effectively address the intricate challenges within the role.

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How does Capital One support the career development of Senior Business Analysts?

Capital One is committed to the professional growth of its employees, including Senior Business Analysts. The company offers comprehensive training programs and mentorship opportunities that help you enhance your analytical skills and expand your business acumen. Furthermore, Capital One encourages cross-functional collaboration, enabling you to learn from other departments such as Risk and Finance, which can further aid your career development.

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What kind of work environment can a Senior Business Analyst expect at Capital One?

Senior Business Analysts at Capital One can expect a dynamic and fast-paced work environment that fosters creativity and analytical thinking. The company values collaboration, and you will work closely with diverse teams across different functions. With an entrepreneurial spirit, Capital One promotes an atmosphere where agility and innovation are encouraged, allowing you to thrive and make an impact.

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What skills are essential for success as a Senior Business Analyst: Commercial Loss Forecasting at Capital One?

Success in the Senior Business Analyst: Commercial Loss Forecasting role requires a blend of strong analytical and communication skills. You should have a solid foundation in quantitative analysis and statistical modeling. Additionally, exceptional written and oral communication abilities are crucial for presenting your insights. Leadership, problem-solving skills, and the ability to thrive in a collaborative environment are also essential for being an effective business analyst at Capital One.

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Common Interview Questions for Senior Business Analyst: Commercial Loss Forecasting
Can you describe your experience with statistical modeling as a Senior Business Analyst?

When answering this question, focus on specific projects where you utilized statistical modeling techniques to derive insights. Discuss the methodologies you employed, the data sources you leveraged, and the outcomes of your analyses. Convey your ability to connect statistical results to business strategies, showcasing how your modeling contributed to forecasting or risk assessment.

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How do you approach problem-solving in your analyst role?

In your response, share a structured approach you use for problem-solving. You might discuss how you frame the problem, gather relevant data, develop hypotheses, and test those hypotheses. Highlight your capacity for strategic thinking and the importance of data-driven decision-making in your analysis to demonstrate your capability as a Senior Business Analyst.

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What tools and technologies do you use in your analysis work?

Be prepared to discuss the various tools and technologies you’re familiar with, such as SQL for data querying, statistical software like R or Python, and analytical tools such as Excel or Tableau. Emphasize your proficiency in using these tools to derive insights and how they help you make data-backed decisions in your role.

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How do you ensure the accuracy of your forecasts?

Explain the meticulous processes you follow to validate your forecasts. This might include cross-referencing data sets, applying statistical tests, and reviewing models for bias. Discuss your experience using historical data to inform future predictions and how you iterate on your models based on new data and insights.

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Describe a time when you needed to present complex information to non-technical stakeholders.

Here, share a specific scenario where you simplified complex data findings for stakeholders without a technical background. Discuss the techniques you used, such as storytelling with data, visuals, or analogies. Highlight your ability to communicate effectively and how you ensured that the stakeholders understood the critical points of your analyses.

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What strategies do you use to build buy-in for your analytical recommendations?

Discuss your approach to gaining support for your recommendations, such as understanding stakeholders' needs, utilizing data visualization to convey insights, and supporting your claims with solid evidence. Emphasize the importance of collaboration and communication in persuading others and driving the implementation of your analytical strategies.

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How do you handle tight deadlines in your work as a Senior Business Analyst?

Explain your strategies for time management when faced with tight deadlines. You might mention prioritizing tasks, breaking projects into manageable parts, and utilizing teamwork to distribute workload effectively. Highlight your adaptability and how you maintain quality in your analysis even under time pressure.

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Can you provide an example of how you’ve improved a forecasting process?

Share a specific instance where you identified limitations in an existing forecasting process and the steps you took to enhance it. Discuss your analytical approach, any quantitative methods you applied, and the results achieved. This shows your proactive nature and commitment to continuous improvement in your role.

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What role does communication play in your job as a Senior Business Analyst?

Communication is critical in the role of a Senior Business Analyst. You need to convey complex analyses clearly and effectively to a variety of stakeholders. Discuss how you ensure your message is tailored to your audience and how building strong relationships across departments helps facilitate collaboration and understanding.

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What do you believe are the most significant challenges in commercial loss forecasting?

Be prepared to discuss key challenges such as the volatility of economic factors that influence loan performance, the need for timely data access, and managing stakeholder expectations. By understanding these challenges and articulating strategies to overcome them, you demonstrate your insights and readiness for the role.

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All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, national origin, disability, or status as a protected veteran

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DATE POSTED
April 1, 2025

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