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Request for Proposal - GRV land degradation impact consultancy

Request for Proposal - GRV land degradation impact consultancy

Summary of procurement

World Resources Institute (WRI) intends to award a fixed term consultancy contract to individuals and /or organizational consultants (1) to develop a BAU scenario of land degradation and potential restoration opportunities in the GRV by 2030, building on the baseline developed by WRI; (2) to analyze the socioeconomic impacts of land degradation on food security, income, poverty and labor productivity.

About the World Resources Institute

Founded in 1982, WRI is a global environmental think tank that goes beyond research to put ideas into action. We work with governments, companies, and civil society to build solutions to urgent environmental challenges. WRI’s transformative ideas protect the earth and promote development because sustainability is essential to meeting human needs and fulfilling human aspirations in the future.

Background

The Greater Rift Valley (GRV) Landscape in Kenya is home to the country’s most important intact forests that are the source of 75% of the country’s water supply. The GRV landscape is about 15.9 million ha across 14 counties, including Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu and West Pokot in the northern GRV, Baringo, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Laikipia, Nakuru and Nyandarua in the central GRV and Murang’a, Narok, Kiambu, Makueni and Kajiado in the southern GRV. Together, the 14 counties contributed 8.11% to Kenya’s GDP in 2020 (Kenyan national statistical Bureau, 2021). Of all sectors, the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector represent the largest Gross County Product (GCP) contributor, accounting for 33.7% of all sector GCP combined in the GRV, with significant variations from the North to the South.

Across Kenya, GVR landscape has some of the highest levels land and forest degradation. Characterized by declining agricultural productivity, biodiversity loss, water scarcity, increased carbon emissions and risk of natural disasters such as floods and desertification – continued degradation is a major challenge to the region and the country socio-economic and ecosystems sustainability (Olesen et al., 2022). Chief among them in smallholder setting is unsustainable farming practices and agricultural expansion into natural habitations amid rapidly growing population. In the effort to meet rising demand for food and livelihood, smallholders are not only forced to intensify unsustainable agricultural and land use practices, but to also expand land under agricultural production, resulting in direct competition between the agriculture sector and natural fragile ecosystems such as forest areas. For instance, it is reported that since 2010, 11% of the natural forests have been lost, largely due to urban expansion, uncontrolled logging, and agricultural land expansion (D'Amico et al., 2022). This is resulting in significant biophysical impacts such as increased sedimentation of water bodies from soil erosion (Kiage et al., 2007). Deforestation has been observed to decrease infiltration rates of the land, reduced water quality and ability of catchment areas to support flow of rivers especially in the dry season (Were et al., 2013, Kiage et al., 2007). Land degradation will lead to decline in bird species, loss in plant biodiversity, and decline in land productivity (Maitima et al., 2009).

Forest and land degradation is a major threat to food security and livelihoods of millions of people through spillover effects, which refer to the situation that negative impacts of land degradation experienced by nature-dependent economic activities in one region will eventually affect the economy across country. Degradation of farmland has dire food security and 2

livelihood implications for over 25% of the Kenyan population that subsist on the affected land - majority of rural smallholder farmers already experiencing severe food insecurity and high levels of poverty. Conversely, these circumstances and habits perpetuate a vicious cycle whereby soils become less productive, forcing smallholders to continue extreme farming methods and to expand into forested land in search of arable land and livelihood opportunities (illegal logging and charcoal production), which leads to further degradation, loss of essential ecosystem services, a decline in agricultural productivity, and a loss of carbon sinks.

To demonstrate the urgency and significance of land restoration in the GRV to reverse the already degraded landscapes, WRI has embarked on a research project since April 2024.

The first objective is to estimate the magnitude of economic damage, and the scale of social and environmental impacts costed by forest and land degradation, and to identify potential opportunities to reverse the degradation trends in the GRV.
The second objective will be to assess the smallholder farmers' characteristics, agronomic and restoration practices and the institutional environment under which they operate impact farm/food productivity as well household food and nutrition security to inform the interventions that WRI seek to implement vis-à-vis integrating food into restoration.

To do this, a crucial first step is to develop a baseline scenario that will allow a comprehensive understanding of the historical trends of land degradation in the GRV, their biophysical, economic and social impacts at both local and national levels. Furthermore, a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario will be developed to illustrate how the trend will continue and what would be the future costs of damage if no land restoration interventions will be implemented at scale while regional climate change impacts continue to accelerate. In line with the second objective, we will be keen to gain insight into farmers’ knowledge, preferences, and perceptions on sustainable agronomic practices specifically agroecology and regenerative agriculture, whilst identifying gaps and opportunities for their adoption. The baseline data from objectives one and two will also serve as a foundation for monitoring and evaluating the restoration impacts over time.

Scope of work

The objectives of this 5-month consultancy are twofold: (1) to develop a BAU scenario of land degradation and potential restoration opportunities in the GRV by 2030, building on the baseline developed by WRI; (2) to analyze the socioeconomic impacts of land degradation on food security, income, poverty and labor productivity.

First, the consultant will develop BAU scenarios that will depict one or more plausible future scenarios of land degradation in the GRV without considerable restoration efforts. More specially, the consultant will develop models to project the future land use and land use changes in the GRV, the state of land degradation by 2030 (including erosion, loss of fertile soils, etc.). In other words, if current trends continue, what would be the projected future losses of crop productivity and other crucial ecosystem services (such as water availability and runoffs, timber production, livestock production, etc.). It is important to note that the scenario development should also take into consideration of different modelled pathways for future GHG emissions and temperature trajectories as projected by the IPCC, and other anthropogenic factors such as population growth, drivers of land use change, and anticipated country transitions, etc. The consultant will work closely with WRI to validate datasets to be used in scenario modelling. 3

Furthermore, the consultant will develop an inventory of potential restoration interventions that could reverse the trends of land degradation while addressing the key drivers of degradation. Building on the existing work developed by WRI technical team, the consultant will help develop restoration priority maps that will indicate priority geographies and suitable restoration interventions for maximizing intended restoration outcomes, such as water flows & sedimentation reduction, crop yields, and/or carbon sequestration.

Next, the consultant is expected to lead a primary socioeconomic data collection effort, which will allow the establishment of a socioeconomic baseline for analyzing the impacts of land degradation on the key livelihood aspects of the local communities, including food security, income, poverty, labor productivity and other opportunities. The consultant is expected to deliver an analysis report on objective 2 regarding farmers practices – detailing the best-bet practices as informed by data that WRI should take up food intervention with restoration champions. Key questions to be addressed are – what best-bet practices were implemented, where and why they were implemented. It is important to note that while the design of the questionnaire and sample protocols will be led by WRI technical team, the consultant will be responsible for carrying out field data collection activities and day-to-day management of the enumerators. Importantly, the socioeconomic analysis will take into consideration a social gender equity lens.

Finally, the consultant will also be responsible for the writeup of the detailed methodology, data used and model results. The draft report of the consultancy will be incorporated into the project progress report that WRI core team is developing.

The consultant will report to the GRV impact research lead at WRI and collaborate with other members of the GRV land degradation impact research team as needed.

More specifically, the consultant will complete the following activities:

Activity 1: Identify, develop and harmonize datasets for spatial analysis and validating maps

Identify data needs and develop a list of data required for the baseline assessment, restoration opportunity mapping and scenario development
Validate existing baseline data and their fit for scenario modelling
Define land degradation in GRV context and identify the key drivers of land degradation (e.g. population growth, overexploitation of resources, increased food demand, climate change, etc.) and associated geospatial layers
Develop a spatial database of all collected data and results from spatial analysis, including LULUC data, soil degradation hotspots, water stress map, etc.
Validate produced data with WRI technical team, to verify the maps and spatial analyses produced and to determine accuracy levels.

Activity 2: Develop BAU scenario and future projections

Assess and identify suitable method(s) for LULUC, scenario modelling and impact assessment in the landscape
Develop an empirical model between LULUC and drivers of degradation
Produce a future projection of the LULUC, land degradation and biophysical impacts by 2030 using BAU
Assess the change of ecosystem services in the degradation BAU to make a case for restoration
Validate produced maps with WRI technical team, to verify the maps and spatial analyses produced and to determine accuracy levels.

Activity 3: Collect primary socioeconomic data for establishing the baseline and submit preliminary draft report on agronomic and restoration practices for food

Validate the data collection methods and protocols with WRI technical team.
Lead field data collection activities for establishing a socioeconomic baseline in the current situation of land degradation, based on the socioeconomic data collection method and sample protocol developed by WRI technical team; the survey instrument and sample frame will be provided by WRI, while communities within the established frame are to be selected and engaged by the consultant.
Responsible for day-to-day management of the enumerators and carrying out household survey to collect disaggregated primary data from a total number of 2000 households in selected geographies. This comprises all hiring and logistic support as required, including providing tablets for data collection.
Submit raw data from primary household survey to WRI technical team for analyzing the causality between land degradation and socioeconomic impacts in terms of food insecurity, poverty, labor productivity and household income in the GRV, with a particular focus on historically marginalized and vulnerable communities.
Submit preliminary draft report on best bet practices for integrating food in restoration.

Activity 4: Restoration opportunity mapping in GRV

Develop maps showing land degradation hotspots and restoration opportunities areas; learning from the scenario modelling.
Develop restoration priority maps in close consultation with WRI technical team, to determine priority areas (and restoration interventions) for specific restoration outcomes, such as water security, food security, carbon sequestration.
Develop an inventory of suitable restoration interventions for the intended restoration outcomes in identified priority areas and their associated costs.

Activity 5: Data analysis and drafting technical report

Produce summary statistics to synthesize key insights from initial analysis of the biophysical and socioeconomic datasets, including trends on the trends of degradation, affected areas, impacts on land productivity, water resources, food security, income and other livelihoods, and draw recommendations on priority areas for restoration, suitable and cost-effective restoration interventions, expected improvement of ecosystem services, etc.
Draft a summary report of the designated research, which should include, but not limited to, the model description, key assumptions, data used, as well as the findings of the analysis.
Provide technical backstopping support and technical guidance to ensure the database is appropriately installed in the GRV infrastructure and regular database updates are planned.
Contribute to the progress report of the project that is currently being developed by the WRI core team

Activity 6: Engage in technical discussions and support other project staff as needed

Make recommendations for replicating the research and methodology in other anchor landscape

Deliverables

*Deliverables* DELIVERABLE NUMBER	DELIVERABLE NAME	DELIVERABLE DESCRIPTION/ ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA	DELIVERY DATE	PAYMENT UPON ACCEPTATION OF THE DELIVERABLE BY WRI
1.	1.1 Developed a list of data required to complete this assignment. 1.2 Identified, developed and harmonized datasets for spatial analysis and validating maps	Once the list of data is reviewed and agreed upon with WRI, the consultant then can go ahead and start Activity 1 and corresponding deliverables. Completed means meetings to review the content have occurred and content has been approved by WRI	November 2024	20%
2.	Developed BAU scenario and future projections	Completed means meetings to review the content have occurred and content has been approved by WRI	December 2024	20%
3	3.1 Conduct primary data collection for analyzing the socioeconomic situations under the BAU, and farmers context – status, agronomic and restoration practices and their impact on food	Completed means meetings to review the content have occurred and content has been approved by WRI	January 2025	20%

Timeline

5 months consultancy (spread over 70 days), starting upon the signature of the contract. However, deliverable 3.1 must be completed by 31 December 2024 and deliverable 3.2 by 31 January 2025.

Financial support

Compensation will be based on a total fixed fee for the delivery of all required deliverables. Therefore, WRI will not reimburse for miscellaneous costs (e.g., travel, office supplies). Rather, these costs should be built into the total cost of the contract. If the Consultant sub-contracts other individuals or organizations to assist in the performance of the Services, the Consultant shall be responsible for any payments to such individuals or organizations. Each payment will be based on the receipt and acceptance by WRI of a product/deliverable and invoice.

Please note that WRI is an IRS-registered 501(c)3, tax-exempt organization. WRI is not VAT exempt. All prices or quotes should include VAT and tax, as applicable.

GUIDELINES FOR PROPOSAL SUBMISSION

Requirements

The selected vendor will be able to demonstrate capacity in similar work, particularly:

Excellent knowledge of Kenyan landscapes or similar landscapes in other countries in East Africa
Expertise and experience in research on complex drivers of land use and land use change, the impacts on land degradation, climate change impact, hydrology modelling, and ecosystem services modelling, etc.
Expertise and experience in research on landscape restoration opportunities and potential restoration techniques, including soil and water conservation techniques
Expertise and experience in socioeconomic research in Kenya, including the design of household survey, field data collection, and the management of enumerators
Expertise and experience in food security analysis and research on livelihood impacts of LULUC and agricultural land degradation

Expertise and experience in using GIS and other statistical tools
Experience in publishing in journal articles and technical reports

Proposal content

Prospective vendors should submit:

A statement of interest describing the proposed team and how it meets the above requirements;
CVs of team members;
Examples of and references for similar previous work;
An outline of the proposed methodology and workplan;
An account of how the work and/or organization is sustainable
A proposed budget with a breakdown of costs sufficient to assess reasonableness and compliance with our funder requirements. If proposing for a Fixed Price contract, please also include a competitive payment schedule associating amounts with work milestones.

Expression of Interest, Deadline for Questions, and Proposal

All expressions of interest and questions about this RFP must be received via email to the contacts below by 6 November 2024, 24h00 (Washington, DC). Answers to the questions

will be shared will all parties who have asked questions or otherwise expressed interest.

Name: Lawrence Eric Ng’ang’a

Title: AFR100 Restoration Monitoring Associate

Email: lawrenceeric.nganga@wri.org

Name: James Wangu

Title: Food Systems Transformation Associate

Email: James.Wangu@wri.org

Name: Gladys Maina

Title: Grants & Finance Specialist

Email: gladys.maina@wri.org

All proposals must be sent by 6 November 2024, 24h00 (Washington, DC) in electronic format to the same contact listed above.

Evaluation Criteria

The following elements will be the primary considerations in evaluating all proposals submitted in response to this RFP :

Completion of all required elements;
The extent to which the vendor’s/organization’s/consultant’s, etc. proposal fulfills WRI’s stated requirements as set out in the RFP;
Experience with similar projects;
Overall cost of the vendor’s/organization’s/consultant’s, etc. proposal;
Debarment and sanctions – WRI will not consider proposals from vendors/organizations/consultants, etc. that are presently debarred by the U.S. government or named on any restricted parties lists;
Sustainability – WRI values sustainability and all other factors being equal, will favor a proposal to more sustainably perform the work.
[Optional] Equity - At the World Resources Institute, we strive to have an inclusive delivery chain. We believe the environmental and international development communities are strengthened by providing equality of opportunity to businesses owned by LGBTQ+ communities, women, indigenous peoples, racialized groups, and people with disabilities - and it is important to WRI that we partner with organizations which share these values. Please describe both how your organization would take an equity-centered approach to the need you are proposing to help us fill and how you incorporate equity, diversity and inclusion into your staffing, board leadership and programs.

The bidder offering the best overall value will be selected. For this procurement, price and non-price aspects are considered to be of approximately equal importance.

Selection Process

No proposal development costs shall be charged to WRI / all expenses are to be borne by the bidders. WRI may award to the bidder offering best value without discussion. However, WRI reserves the right to seek bidder clarifications and to negotiate with those bidders deemed to be within a competitive range.

WRI may, at its discretion and without explanation to the prospective vendors/organizations/consultants, etc., choose to discontinue this RFP without obligation to such prospective vendors/organizations/consultants, etc. or make multiple awards under this RFP. Contracts will not be awarded to vendors/organizations/consultants, etc. debarred by the US government or named on restricted parties lists.

By World Resources Institute

WRI’s mission is to move human society to live in ways that protect Earth’s environment and its capacity to provide for the needs and aspirations of current and future generations.

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FUNDING

Nonprofit

DEPARTMENTS

Other

SENIORITY LEVEL REQUIREMENT

Mid-Level

INDUSTRY

Civic & Social Services

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